Recent Market MetricsCurrentPrevious 
Existing Home Sales
fell
1.2% in Jan, to 4,940,000/yr, the lowest level in 6 mos
4,940,000
5,000,000
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Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.2 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million in January. Sales are now down 8.5 percent from a year ago (5.40 million in January 2018).
21-Feb-19 11:10 AM ET - National Association of RealtorsNext: 21-Mar-19
Home Sales Inventory
rose
5.4% in Jan, to 3.9 months
3.9
3.7
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Total housing inventory at the end of January increased to 1.59 million, up from 1.53 million existing homes available for sale in December, and represents an increase from 1.52 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in December and from 3.4 months in January 2018.
21-Feb-19 11:10 AM ET - National Association of RealtorsNext: 21-Mar-19
30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate
fell
to 4.35% on Feb 21, down from 4.37% on Feb 14 & the lowest in 12 mos
4.35%
4.37%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.35 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending February 21, 2019, down from last week when it averaged 4.37 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.78 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.85 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.88 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.65 percent.
21-Feb-19 10:07 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 28-Feb-19
15-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate
fell
to 3.78% on Feb 21, down from 3.81% on Feb 14 & the lowest in 12 mos
3.78%
3.81%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.35 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending February 21, 2019, down from last week when it averaged 4.37 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.78 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.85 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.88 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.65 percent.
21-Feb-19 10:07 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 28-Feb-19
5-Yr ARM
fell
to 3.84% on Feb 21, down from 3.88% on Feb 14
3.84%
3.88%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.35 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending February 21, 2019, down from last week when it averaged 4.37 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.78 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.85 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.88 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.65 percent.
21-Feb-19 10:07 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 28-Feb-19
Initial Unemployment Claims
fell
9.6% for the week ending Feb 16, to 216,000
216,000
239,000
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In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of

23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,750, an increase of

4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 231,750. This is the highest level for this average since January 20,
21-Feb-19 8:33 AM ET - US Dept of LaborNext: 28-Feb-19
Mortgage Application Volume
rose
3.6% for the week ending Feb 15
3.6%
-3.7%
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WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 20, 2019) - Mortgage applications increased 3.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 15, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

"Mortgage rates held steady on mixed economic news, as core inflation remained firm, while retail sales in December were much weaker than expected. However, overall application activity picked up over the week," said Jl Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Industry Surveys and Forecasts. "After four consecutive declines, purchase applications increased almost 2 percent over the week and 2.5 percent compared to a year ago - showing some promise as we edge closer to the spring homebuying season."

Added Kan, "Most rates remained close to 10-month lows, which allowed some borrowers with an incentive to refinance to capitalize. The 30-year fixed rate was essentially unchanged at 4.66 percent."

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 41.7 percent of total applications from 41.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 7.7 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 10.2 percent from 11.0 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 10.1 percent from 10.9 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.66 percent from 4.65 percent, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $484,350) increased to 4.56 percent from 4.48 percent, with points decreasing to 0.23 from 0.27 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.68 percent from 4.61 percent, with points increasing to 0.58 from 0.53 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.04 percent from 4.04 percent, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.00 percent from 3.97 percent, with points decreasing to 0.24 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA's Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mba.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

20-Feb-19 9:41 AM ET - MBANext: 27-Feb-19
UK Unemployment Rate
remained at
4.0% in Dec
4.0%
4.0%
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  • Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between July to September 2018 and October to December 2018, the number of people in work increased, while the number of unemployed people and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) both fell.

  • There were an estimated 32.60 million people in work, 167,000 more than for July to September 2018 and 444,000 more than for a year earlier.

  • The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.2%) and the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

  • There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

  • There were an estimated 1.36 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 14,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 100,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

  • The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975.

  • There were an estimated 8.63 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking nor available to work), 94,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 153,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

  • The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was estimated at 20.9%, the lowest figure since comparable estimates began in 1971.

  • Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.4% both excluding and including bonuses compared with a year earlier.

  • Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.2% excluding bonuses, and by 1.3% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

19-Feb-19 8:34 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 19-Mar-19
US Retail Sales
fell
1.2% in Dec, to $505.8 Billion,
-1.2%
0.2%
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U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2018 were $505.8 billion, a decrease of 1.2 percent (+/-0.5%) from the previous month.


December 2018: -1.2 % change
November 2018 (r): +0.1* % change

14-Feb-19 11:16 AM ET - USCBNext: 14-Mar-19
US Producer/Wholesale Price Index
fell
0.1% in Jan
-0.1%
-0.2%
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The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPIs measure price change from the purchaser's perspective. Sellers' and purchasers' prices can differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.
14-Feb-19 8:34 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 13-Mar-19
US Treasury reported a
deficit
of $14 Billion in Dec
-$14
-$205
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The US Treasury publishes the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) at 2:00 PM on the 8th business day of each month.

The MTS summarizes the financial activities of the federal government and off-budget federal entities in accordance with the Budget of the U.S. Government, inlcuding:

  • Receipts and outlays
  • Surplus or deficit
  • Means of financing on a modified cash basis

Data provided by federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve Banks.

13-Feb-19 4:51 PM ET - US Department of the TreasuryNext: 12-Mar-19
Overall US Inflation
remained flat
in Jan
0.0%
-0.1%
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
  • (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and
  • (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
13-Feb-19 8:48 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 12-Mar-19
Core US Inflation
rose
0.2% in Jan
0.2%
0.2%
collapse/expand
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
  • (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and
  • (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
13-Feb-19 8:48 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 12-Mar-19
UK Inflation
fell
to 1.8% in Jan, down from 2.0% in Dec & the lowest since Jan 2017
1.8%
2.0%
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  • The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in January 2019, down from 2.0% in December 2018.

  • The largest downward contribution to the change in the 12-month rate came from electricity, gas and other fuels, with prices overall falling between December 2018 and January 2019 compared with price rises the same time a year ago.

  • These downward effects were partially offset by air fares, with prices falling between December 2018 and January 2019 by less than a year ago.

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.8% in January 2019, down from 2.1% in December 2018.

13-Feb-19 8:42 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 20-Mar-19
UK Producer/Wholesale Price Inflation
fell
to 2.1% in Jan, down from 2.4% in Dec & the lowest since Oct 2016
2.1%
2.4%
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  • The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 2.1% on the year to January 2019, down from 2.4% in December 2018.

  • The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process slowed to 2.9% on the year to January 2019, down from 3.2% in December 2018.

  • Petroleum products and crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output and input inflation respectively.

  • Crude oil prices fell by 6.9% on the year to January 2019, the largest annual decrease since June 2016.

13-Feb-19 8:29 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 20-Mar-19
UK GDP
grew
0.2% in the 3 months to Dec, the least in 9 mos
0.2%
0.3%
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The UK Office for National Statistics publishes Preliminary Estimates of GDP approximately one month after the end of a given quarter, followed by Second Estimates a month later and the Final Estimates a month after that.
11-Feb-19 7:25 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 12-Mar-19
Canada Unemployment Rate
rose
to 5.8% in Jan, up from 5.6% in Dec
5.8%
5.6%
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The Canadian unemployment rate is reported monthly by Statistics Canada.
08-Feb-19 8:37 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 08-Mar-19
US Productivity
increased
at an annualized rate of 1.3% in Q4
1.3%
2.3%
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Preliminary:
Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages 2018, Preliminary

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, manufacturing productivity increased 0.7percent, reflecting a 2.8-percent increase in output and a 2.1-percent increase in hours worked. (Seetables A1 and 3.) Annual average productivity increased 0.6 percent from 2017 to 2018. (See table C1.)
06-Feb-19 10:16 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 07-Mar-19
Durable Goods Total New Orders
rose
0.7% in Nov, revised from 0.8%
0.7%
-4.3%
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Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) Public Information Office 301-763-4832 301-763-3030 eid.m3.qs@census.gov pio@census.gov FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2018 MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND ORDERS NOVEMBER 2018 Release Number: CB 18-184 M3-1 (18)-11 December 21, 2018 The U.S. Census Bureau announces the November advance report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders: New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.3 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $2.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $87.0 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $256.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $89.5 billion. DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS NOVEMBER 2018 $250.8 billion +0.8%° OCTOBER 2018 (revised) $248.9 billion -4.3%° Next release: January 25, 2019 Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. °Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, December 21, 2018. Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 % Change 3.2% -4.2% 4.5% 2.7% -1.0% -0.3% 0.9% -1.2% 4.7% 0.0% -4.3% 0.8%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0% DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2017-2018Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, December 21, 2018.
05-Feb-19 9:21 AM ET - USCBNext: 27-Feb-19
Capital Goods Core Capex
fell
0.6% in Nov, unrevised from previous estimate
-0.6%
0.5%
collapse/expand
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) Public Information Office 301-763-4832 301-763-3030 eid.m3.qs@census.gov pio@census.gov FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2018 MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND ORDERS NOVEMBER 2018 Release Number: CB 18-184 M3-1 (18)-11 December 21, 2018 The U.S. Census Bureau announces the November advance report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders: New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.3 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $2.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $87.0 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $256.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $89.5 billion. DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS NOVEMBER 2018 $250.8 billion +0.8%° OCTOBER 2018 (revised) $248.9 billion -4.3%° Next release: January 25, 2019 Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. °Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, December 21, 2018. Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 % Change 3.2% -4.2% 4.5% 2.7% -1.0% -0.3% 0.9% -1.2% 4.7% 0.0% -4.3% 0.8%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0% DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2017-2018Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, December 21, 2018.
05-Feb-19 9:21 AM ET - USCBNext: 27-Feb-19
New Home Sales
rose
16.9% in Nov, to 657,000/yr, the highest level in 8 mos
657,000
562,000
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Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301- 763- 5160 301- 763- 3030 eid.rcb.customer.service@census.gov pio@census.gov FOR RELEASE AT 10:00 AM EST, THURSDAY, JANUARY 31, 2019 MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES, NOVEMBER 2018 Release Number: CB18-195 January 31, 2019 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for November 2018: NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES NOVEMBER 2018 New Houses Sold 1 : 657,000 New Houses For Sale 2 : 330,000 Median Sales Price: $302,400 Next Release: TBD 1Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates 2Seasonally Adjusted Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, January 31, 2018 New Home Sa les Sales of new single- family houses in November 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 16.9 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the revised October rate of 562,000, but is 7.7 percent (±20.7 perce nt)* below the November 2017 estimate of 712,000. Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2018 was $302,400. The average sales price was $362,400. For Sale Inventory and Months' Supply The seasonally- adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of Novemb er was 330,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate. The U.S. Census Bureau is updating its 2019 economic indicator release calendar in coordination with other agencies and the Office of Management and Budget to address the impacts of the recent lapse in federal funding. Please refer to < www.census.gov/economic- indicators/> for the latest information on the rescheduled release dates. 0 200400600800 Nov- 13 Nov- 14 Nov- 15 Nov- 16 Nov- 17 Nov- 18 Thousands of Units New Residential Sales (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) Houses Sold Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, January 31, 2018
04-Feb-19 8:13 AM ET - USCBNext: 26-Feb-19
EU Unemployment Rate
remained at
7.9% in Dec
7.9%
7.9%
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The euro area (EA17) unemployment rate is published at the end of each month by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It is a seasonally-adjusted rate.
04-Feb-19 8:05 AM ET - EurostatNext: 01-Mar-19
US Construction Spending
rose
0.8% in Nov, to $1299.9 Billion/yr
0.8%
-0.1%
collapse/expand
The Value of Construction Put in Place Survey provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. The United States Code, Title 13, authorizes this program. The survey covers construction work done each month on new structures or improvements to existing structures for private and public sectors. Data estimates include the cost of labor and materials, cost of architectural and engineering work, overhead costs, interest and taxes paid during construction, and contractor's profits. Data collection and estimation activities begin on the first day after the reference month and continue for about three weeks. Reported data and estimates are for activity taking place during the previous calendar month. The survey has been conducted monthly since 1964.
02-Feb-19 9:04 AM ET - USCBNext: 01-Mar-19
US Consumer Confidence
fell
to 91.2 in Jan, down from 98.3 in Dec & the lowest level since Oct 2016
91.2
98.3
collapse/expand
Final:
The numbers: The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index plunged to a reading of 91.2 in January from 98.3 in December, the worst since Donald Trump was elected president.

That was a touch better than the mid-January reading of 90.7.

01-Feb-19 11:59 AM ET - Thompson Reuters U. MichiganNext: 01-Mar-19
ISM Manufacturing Index
rose
to 56.6% in Jan, up from 54.1% in Dec
56.6%
54.1%
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(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The January PMI® registered 56.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the December reading of 54.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 58.2 percent, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from the December reading of 51.3 percent. The Production Index registered 60.5 percent, 6.4-percentage point increase compared to the December reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the December reading of 56 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, a 2.8 percentage point decrease from the December reading of 59 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the December reading of 51.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.6 percent, a 5.3-percentage point decrease from the December reading of 54.9 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the first time in nearly three years.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by strong demand and output. Demand expansion improved with the New Orders Index reading returning to the high 50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders remaining at a near-zero-expansion level. Consumption continued to strengthen, with production expanding strongly and employment continuing to expand at previous-month levels. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to improve, but are negative to PMI® expansion. Inputs reflect an easing business environment, confirmed by Prices Index contraction.

“Exports continue to expand, but at the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2016. Prices contracted for the first time since the first quarter of 2016. The manufacturing sector continues to expand, reversing December’s weak expansion, but inputs and prices indicate fundamental changes in supply chain constraints,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported growth in January, in the following order: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting contraction in January is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

01-Feb-19 10:00 AM ET - Institute of Supply ManagementNext: 01-Mar-19
US Unemployment Rate
rose
to 4.0% in Jan, up from 3.9% in Dec & the highest in 7 mos
4.0%
3.9%
collapse/expand
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and theunemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsreported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisureand hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.

_____________________________________________________________________________| || Changes to The Employment Situation Data || || Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual || benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. || Also, household survey data for January 2019 reflect updated population || estimates. See the notes beginning at the end of this news release for || more information about these changes. ||_____________________________________________________________________________|

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons,at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the partial federal governmentshutdown contributed to the uptick in these measures. Among the unemployed, thenumber who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figureincludes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed ontemporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey. (See tablesA-1 and A-11. For information about annual population adjustments to the householdsurvey estimates, see the note at the end of this release and tables B and C. Formore information on the classification of workers affected by the partial federalgovernment shutdown, see the box note at the end of this news release.)
01-Feb-19 8:40 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 08-Mar-19
US NonFarm Payroll
rose
304,000 in Jan, the most in 11 mos
304,000
222,000
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Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and theunemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsreported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisureand hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.

_____________________________________________________________________________| || Changes to The Employment Situation Data || || Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual || benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. || Also, household survey data for January 2019 reflect updated population || estimates. See the notes beginning at the end of this news release for || more information about these changes. ||_____________________________________________________________________________|

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons,at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the partial federal governmentshutdown contributed to the uptick in these measures. Among the unemployed, thenumber who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figureincludes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed ontemporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey. (See tablesA-1 and A-11. For information about annual population adjustments to the householdsurvey estimates, see the note at the end of this release and tables B and C. Formore information on the classification of workers affected by the partial federalgovernment shutdown, see the box note at the end of this news release.)
01-Feb-19 8:40 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 08-Mar-19
Canada GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 1.7% in Nov, the least since Nov 2016
1.7%
2.2%
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Canadian GDP is reported monthly by Statistics Canada. The annual growth rate is the percentage change of current-month GDP at basic prices from the same month one year ago.
31-Jan-19 8:39 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 01-Mar-19
EU GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3, revised from 3.1%, the least in 18 mos
3.0%
3.5%
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Preliminary:
European Union gross domestic product (GDP) is published by the Europan Central Bank at market prices. It is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes.
31-Jan-19 7:24 AM ET - ECBNext: 07-Mar-19
ADP NonFarm Payroll
rose
213,000 in Jan
213,000
263,000
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Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
30-Jan-19 8:21 AM ET - ADPNext: 06-Mar-19
Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index
rose
4.7% in Nov vs. previous year, to 213.66
4.7%
5.0%
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The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures for the US residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.
29-Jan-19 9:51 AM ET - Standard & Poor'sNext: 26-Feb-19
Canada Inflation
rose
to 2.0% in Dec, up from 1.7% in Nov
2.0%
1.7%
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 1.7% increase in November. Lower energy prices were offset by higher prices for various services, including air transportation, telephone services and travel tours. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% in December.
18-Jan-19 9:05 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 27-Feb-19
EU Inflation (HICP)
fell
to 1.6% in Dec, down from 1.9% in Nov & the lowest in 8 mos
1.6%
1.9%
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The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB).
17-Jan-19 8:00 AM ET - EurostatNext: 22-Feb-19
US Consumer Spending (PCE)
rose
0.1% in Nov
0.1%
0.2%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Consumption Expenditures monthly. A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.
21-Dec-18 11:36 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 31-Jan-19
US Core Consumer Spending PCE
rose
0.1% in Nov
0.1%
0.1%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Consumption Expenditures monthly. A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.
21-Dec-18 11:36 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 31-Jan-19
US Personal Income
rose
0.2% in Nov
0.2%
0.5%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Income monthly.
21-Dec-18 11:36 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 31-Jan-19
US Personal Savings was 6.0% in Nov, down from 6.1% in Oct & the lowest in 13 mos
6.0%
6.1%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Saving monthly.
21-Dec-18 11:36 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 31-Jan-19
US Disposable Income
rose
0.2% in Nov
0.2%
0.5%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Disposable Personal Income monthly.
21-Dec-18 11:36 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 31-Jan-19
US Corporate Profits
rose
6.1% in Q3 (vs. Q3 2017), revised from 5.9%, to $1.98 Trillion/yr
6.1%
6.4%
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Revised Estimate:
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $78.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the second quarter.



Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $6.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $16.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $83.0 billion, compared with an increase of $53.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $1.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $9.5 billion, and payments decreased $10.8 billion.

21-Dec-18 8:35 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 28-Feb-19
US Real GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q3, revised from 3.5%
3.4%
4.2%
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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

21-Dec-18 8:33 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Jan-19
Housing Starts
rose
3.2% in Nov, to 1,256,000/yr
1,256,000
1,217,000
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Privately-owned housing starts in November 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 3.2 percent (+/- 9.8%)* above the revised October 2018 estimate of 1,217,000.


November 2018: +3.2* % change
October 2018 (r): -1.6* % change

18-Dec-18 8:37 AM ET - USCBNext: 17-Jan-19
1-Yr ARM
remained at
2.68% on Dec 31
2.68%
2.68%
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Mortgage Rates Top Four Percent

MCLEAN, VA--(Marketwired - Dec 31, 2015) - Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing fixed mortgage rates moving higher with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage breaking above four percent for the first time in five months.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.01 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending December 31, 2015, up from last week when it averaged 3.96 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent. 

  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.24 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from 3.22 percent last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.15 percent. 

  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.08 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.06 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.01 percent.

  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.68 percent this week with an average 0.2 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.40 percent. 

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

As of January 1, 2016, the PMMS will no longer provide results for the 1-year ARM. Additionally, the regional breakouts will not be provided for the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages, and the 5/1 Hybrid ARM.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

"In the final week of 2015, Treasury yields jumped reacting in part to strong consumer confidence in December. In response, the 30-year mortgage rate rose 5 basis points to 4.01 percent, ending a 5-month span below 4 percent. After averaging 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, we expect the 30-year mortgage rate to average 4.7 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016."

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. Additional information is available at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac's blog FreddieMac.com/blog.



31-Dec-15 10:48 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 07-Jan-16