Recent Market MetricsCurrentPrevious 
EU Inflation (HICP)
fell
to 1.0% in Jul, down from 1.3% in Jun & the lowest since Nov 2016
1.0%
1.3%
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The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB).
19-Aug-19 8:39 AM ET - EurostatNext: 18-Sep-19
Housing Starts
fell
4.0% in Jul, to 1,191,000/yr
1,191,000
1,241,000
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Privately-owned housing starts in July 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,191,000. This is 4.0 percent (+/- 8.0%)* below the revised June 2019 estimate of 1,241,000.


July 2019: -4.0* % change
June 2019 (r): -1.8* % change

16-Aug-19 10:30 AM ET - USCBNext: 18-Sep-19
30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate
remained at
3.60% on Aug 15
3.60%
3.60%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending Aug 15, 2019, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.53 percent.
  • 15-year FRM averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.01 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.35 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.87 percent.
15-Aug-19 10:00 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 22-Aug-19
15-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate
rose
to 3.07% on Aug 15, up from 3.05% on Aug 8
3.07%
3.05%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending Aug 15, 2019, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.53 percent.
  • 15-year FRM averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.01 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.35 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.87 percent.
15-Aug-19 10:00 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 22-Aug-19
5-Yr ARM
fell
to 3.35% on Aug 15, down from 3.36% on Aug 8 & the lowest in 20 mos
3.35%
3.36%
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  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending Aug 15, 2019, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.53 percent.
  • 15-year FRM averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.01 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.35 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.87 percent.
15-Aug-19 10:00 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 22-Aug-19
Initial Unemployment Claims
rose
4.3% for the week ending Aug 10, to 220,000
220,000
211,000
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In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, an increase of

9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to

211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The
15-Aug-19 8:38 AM ET - US Dept of LaborNext: 22-Aug-19
US Productivity
increased
at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q2
2.3%
3.4%
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Preliminary:
Second Quarter 2019, Preliminary

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.9 percent and hours worked decreased 0.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.8 percent, reflecting a 2.6-percent increase in output and a 0.8-percent increase in hours worked. (See table A1.)
15-Aug-19 8:37 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 05-Sep-19
US Retail Sales
rose
0.7% in Jul, to $523.5 Billion
0.7%
0.4%
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U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2019 were $523.5 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (+/-0.5%) from the previous month.


July 2019: +0.7 % change
June 2019 (r): +0.3 % change

15-Aug-19 8:35 AM ET - USCBNext: 13-Sep-19
Mortgage Application Volume
rose
21.7% for the week ending Aug 9
21.7%
5.3%
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WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 14, 2019) - Mortgage applications increased 21.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 21.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week to its highest level since July 2016, and was 196 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

"The 2019 refinance wave continued, as homeowners last week responded to extraordinarily low mortgage rates. Fears of an escalating trade war, combined with economic and geopolitical concerns, once again pulled U.S. Treasury rates lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased eight basis points to 3.93 percent - the lowest level since November 2016 - and has now dropped more than 80 basis points this year," said Jl Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "In just the last two weeks, rates have decreased 15 basis points and the refinance index has increased more than 50 percent, reaching its highest level since July 2016. The government refinance index, driven by a 25 percent increase in VA refinance applications, is now at its highest level since May 2013."

Added Kan, "Purchase applications also benefited from these lower rates, with activity increasing 1.9 percent last week and 12 percent from a year ago."

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 61.4 percent of total applications from 53.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.0 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 9.5 percent from 11.0 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 12.2 percent from 12.8 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.5 percent from 0.6 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.93 percent, from 4.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $484,350) decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.88 percent, from 3.96 percent, with points decreasing to 0.24 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.81 percent, from 3.86 percent, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.28 percent, from 3.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.43 percent from 3.36 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA's Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mba.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

14-Aug-19 8:57 AM ET - MBANext: 21-Aug-19
UK Producer/Wholesale Price Inflation
rose
to 1.8% in Jul, up from 1.6% in Jun
1.8%
1.6%
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  • The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 1.8% on the year to July 2019, up from 1.6% in June 2019.

  • The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was 1.3% on the year to July 2019, up from 0.3% in June 2019.

  • Computer, electrical and optical products provided the largest upward contribution to the annual rate of output inflation.

  • Fuels provided the largest upward contribution to the annual rate of input inflation.

14-Aug-19 8:41 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 18-Sep-19
UK Inflation
rose
to 2.0% in Jul, up from 1.9% in Jun
2.0%
1.9%
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  • The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.0% in July 2019, increasing from 1.9% in June 2019.

  • Between June and July 2019, there were large upward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month rate from games, toys and hobbies, and accommodation services, where prices for both rose by more than a year ago, and from clothing and footwear, and other financial services.

  • There were offsetting downward contributions to change coming from transport services and, to a lesser extent, from domestic fuels principally electricity and gas.

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.1% in July 2019, increasing from 2.0% in June 2019.

  • Following the correction of an error in the 2017 to 2018 Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF) dataset used to produce the Retail Prices Index (RPI) 2019 weights, the July 2019 RPI is published on an updated basis see Section 7: More about consumer price inflation.

14-Aug-19 8:41 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 18-Sep-19
Overall US Inflation
rose
0.3% in Jul
0.3%
0.1%
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
  • (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and
  • (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
13-Aug-19 8:30 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 12-Sep-19
Core US Inflation
rose
0.3% in Jul
0.3%
0.3%
collapse/expand
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
  • (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and
  • (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
13-Aug-19 8:30 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 12-Sep-19
UK Unemployment Rate
rose
to 3.9% in Jun, up from 3.8% in May
3.9%
3.8%
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  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, the joint-highest on record since comparable records began in 1971.

  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%; lower than a year earlier (4.0%); on the quarter the rate was 0.1 percentage points higher.

  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.7%, a joint-record low.

  • Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased to 3.7% for total pay (including bonuses) and 3.9% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).

  • In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), total pay is estimated to have increased by 1.8% compared with a year earlier, and regular pay is estimated to have increased by 1.9%.

13-Aug-19 8:07 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 10-Sep-19
US Treasury reported a
deficit
of $120 Billion in Jul
-$120
-$8
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The US Treasury publishes the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) at 2:00 PM on the 8th business day of each month.

The MTS summarizes the financial activities of the federal government and off-budget federal entities in accordance with the Budget of the U.S. Government, inlcuding:

  • Receipts and outlays
  • Surplus or deficit
  • Means of financing on a modified cash basis

Data provided by federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve Banks.

12-Aug-19 2:01 PM ET - US Department of the TreasuryNext: 12-Sep-19
Canada Unemployment Rate
rose
to 5.7% in Jul, up from 5.5% in Jun
5.7%
5.5%
collapse/expand
The Canadian unemployment rate is reported monthly by Statistics Canada.
09-Aug-19 9:37 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 06-Sep-19
UK GDP
contracted by
0.2% in the 3 months to Jun, the lowest rate since Dec 2012
-0.2%
0.3%
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The UK Office for National Statistics publishes Preliminary Estimates of GDP approximately one month after the end of a given quarter, followed by Second Estimates a month later and the Final Estimates a month after that.
09-Aug-19 9:36 AM ET - UK Office of National StatisticsNext: 09-Sep-19
US Producer/Wholesale Price Index
rose
0.2% in Jul
0.2%
0.1%
collapse/expand
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPIs measure price change from the purchaser's perspective. Sellers' and purchasers' prices can differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.
09-Aug-19 8:35 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 11-Sep-19
US Consumer Confidence
rose
to 98.4 in Jul, up from 98.2 in Jun
98.4
98.2
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Final:
The index was just below expectations of 98.5, according to economists polled by Refinitiv. The reading is up from the 98.2 in June.

Economic confidence has been remarkably stable since the start of 2017, despite ongoing trade uncertainties. The resilience displayed has been primarily due to a renewed sense of personal financial optimism, Richard Curtin, the chief economist for Surveys of Consumers, said in a news release.

02-Aug-19 12:26 PM ET - Thompson Reuters U. MichiganNext: 30-Aug-19
Durable Goods Total New Orders
rose
1.9% in Jun, revised from 2.0%, the most in 10 mos
1.9%
-2.3%
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Advance Report:
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) Public Information Office 301-763-4832 301-763-3030 eid.m3.qs@census.gov pio@census.gov FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2019 MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND ORDERS JUNE 2019 Release Number: CB 19-103 M3-1 (19)-06 July 25, 2019 The U.S. Census Bureau announces the June advance report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders: New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $246.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.3 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $3.0 billion or 3.8 percent to $80.5 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up two consecutive months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $258.2 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent May increase. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $2.6 billion or 3.1 percent to $88.8 billion. DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS JUNE 2019 $246.0 billion +2.0%° MAY 2019 (revised) $241.0 billion -2.3%° Next release: August 26, 2019 Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. °Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, July 25, 2019. Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 % Change -0.9% 4.2% 1.5% -4.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% -2.6% 1.7% -2.8% -2.3% 2.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0% DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2018-2019Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, July 25, 2019.
02-Aug-19 12:26 PM ET - USCBNext: 26-Aug-19
Capital Goods Core Capex
rose
1.5% in Jun, revised from 1.9%, the most in 11 mos
1.5%
0.3%
collapse/expand
Advance Report:
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) Public Information Office 301-763-4832 301-763-3030 eid.m3.qs@census.gov pio@census.gov FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2019 MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND ORDERS JUNE 2019 Release Number: CB 19-103 M3-1 (19)-06 July 25, 2019 The U.S. Census Bureau announces the June advance report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders: New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $246.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.3 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $3.0 billion or 3.8 percent to $80.5 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up two consecutive months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $258.2 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent May increase. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $2.6 billion or 3.1 percent to $88.8 billion. DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS JUNE 2019 $246.0 billion +2.0%° MAY 2019 (revised) $241.0 billion -2.3%° Next release: August 26, 2019 Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. °Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, July 25, 2019. Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 % Change -0.9% 4.2% 1.5% -4.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% -2.6% 1.7% -2.8% -2.3% 2.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0% DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2018-2019Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, July 25, 2019.
02-Aug-19 12:26 PM ET - USCBNext: 26-Aug-19
US Unemployment Rate
remained at
3.7% in Jul
3.7%
3.7%
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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemploymentrate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reportedtoday. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services,health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The householdsurvey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographiccharacteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours,and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statisticalmethodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in July, and the number of unemployedpersons was little changed at 6.1 million. (See table A-1.)
02-Aug-19 12:08 PM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 06-Sep-19
US NonFarm Payroll
rose
164,000 in Jul
164,000
224,000
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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemploymentrate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reportedtoday. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services,health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The householdsurvey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographiccharacteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours,and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statisticalmethodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in July, and the number of unemployedpersons was little changed at 6.1 million. (See table A-1.)
02-Aug-19 12:08 PM ET - U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: 06-Sep-19
US Construction Spending
fell
1.3% in Jun, to $1287.0 Billion/yr
-1.3%
-0.8%
collapse/expand
The Value of Construction Put in Place Survey provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. The United States Code, Title 13, authorizes this program. The survey covers construction work done each month on new structures or improvements to existing structures for private and public sectors. Data estimates include the cost of labor and materials, cost of architectural and engineering work, overhead costs, interest and taxes paid during construction, and contractor's profits. Data collection and estimation activities begin on the first day after the reference month and continue for about three weeks. Reported data and estimates are for activity taking place during the previous calendar month. The survey has been conducted monthly since 1964.
01-Aug-19 10:29 AM ET - USCBNext: 03-Sep-19
ISM Manufacturing Index
fell
to 51.2% in Jul, down from 51.7% in Jun & the lowest level since Aug 2016
51.2%
51.7%
collapse/expand
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July, and the overall economy grew for the 123rd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The July PMI® registered 51.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the June reading of 51.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 50.8 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the June reading of 50 percent. The Production Index registered 50.8 percent, a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.7 percent, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the June reading of 54.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.3 percent, a 2.6-percentage point increase from the June reading of 50.7 percent. The Inventories Index registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the June reading of 49.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.1 percent, a 2.8-percentage point decrease from the June reading of 47.9 percent.

 

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at soft levels. July was the fourth straight month of slowing PMI® expansion. Demand expansion resumed, with the New Orders Index recording marginal growth, the Customers’ Inventories Index entering “about right” territory, and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the third straight month, at stronger levels compared to prior months. New export orders also contracted. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued to expand, but at lower levels. This resulted in a combined decrease of 6.1 percentage points to the PMI® calculation due to minimal new-order growth, backlog contraction and customer-inventory gains. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were lower this month, due to inventory tightening for the second straight month and continued slower supplier deliveries, resulting in a combined 3.0-percentage point improvement in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes. Imports and new export orders contracted. Overall, inputs indicate (1) supply chains are responding marginally slower and (2) supply managers are closely matching inventories to new orders. Prices contracted for the second consecutive month, indicating lower overall systemic demand.


“Respondents expressed less concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains a significant issue. More respondents noted supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China. Overall, sentiment this month is evenly mixed,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine reported growth in July, in the following order: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting contraction in July — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery.

01-Aug-19 10:26 AM ET - Institute of Supply ManagementNext: 02-Sep-19
EU GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q1, unrevised from previous estimate
2.8%
2.7%
collapse/expand
Second Estimate:
European Union gross domestic product (GDP) is published by the Europan Central Bank at market prices. It is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes.
31-Jul-19 5:05 PM ET - ECBNext: 06-Sep-19
Canada GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 1.4% in May
1.4%
1.5%
collapse/expand
Canadian GDP is reported monthly by Statistics Canada. The annual growth rate is the percentage change of current-month GDP at basic prices from the same month one year ago.
31-Jul-19 8:47 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 30-Aug-19
ADP NonFarm Payroll
rose
156,000 in Jul
156,000
112,000
collapse/expand
Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
31-Jul-19 8:34 AM ET - ADPNext: 05-Sep-19
EU Unemployment Rate
fell
to 7.5% in Jun, down from 7.6% in May & the lowest since Sep 2008
7.5%
7.6%
collapse/expand
The euro area (EA17) unemployment rate is published at the end of each month by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It is a seasonally-adjusted rate.
31-Jul-19 7:26 AM ET - EurostatNext: 30-Aug-19
Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index
rose
2.4% in May vs. previous year, to 216.94
2.4%
2.5%
collapse/expand
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures for the US residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.
30-Jul-19 9:18 AM ET - Standard & Poor'sNext: 27-Aug-19
US Personal Savings was 8.1% in Jun, up from 8.0% in May
8.1%
8.0%
collapse/expand
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Saving monthly.
30-Jul-19 9:06 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Aug-19
US Personal Income
rose
0.4% in Jun
0.4%
0.4%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Income monthly.
30-Jul-19 9:06 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Aug-19
US Consumer Spending (PCE)
rose
0.1% in Jun
0.1%
0.1%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Consumption Expenditures monthly. A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.
30-Jul-19 9:06 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Aug-19
US Core Consumer Spending PCE
rose
0.2% in Jun
0.2%
0.2%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Personal Consumption Expenditures monthly. A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.
30-Jul-19 9:06 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Aug-19
US Disposable Income
rose
0.4% in Jun
0.4%
0.3%
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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes seasonally adjusted data for Disposable Personal Income monthly.
30-Jul-19 9:06 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 30-Aug-19
US Real GDP
grew
at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q2, the least since Mar 2017
2.1%
3.1%
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Advance Estimate:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.



The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.

26-Jul-19 8:42 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 29-Aug-19
New Home Sales
rose
7.0% in Jun, to 646,000/yr
646,000
604,000
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Sales of new single-family houses in June 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 646,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.0 percent (±15.2 percent)* above the revised May rate of 604,000 and is 4.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the June 2018 estimate of 618,000.
24-Jul-19 2:39 PM ET - USCBNext: 23-Aug-19
Existing Home Sales
fell
1.7% in Jun, to 5,270,000/yr
5,270,000
5,360,000
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Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June. Sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018).
23-Jul-19 10:31 AM ET - National Association of RealtorsNext: 21-Aug-19
Home Sales Inventory
rose
2.3% in Jun, to 4.4 months, to the highest level in 9 mos
4.4
4.3
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Total housing inventory at the end of June increased to 1.93 million, up from 1.91 million existing-homes available for sale in May, but unchanged from the level of one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from the 4.3 month supply recorded in both May and in June 2018.
23-Jul-19 10:31 AM ET - National Association of RealtorsNext: 21-Aug-19
Canada Inflation
fell
to 2.1% in Jun, down from 2.3% in May
2.1%
2.3%
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he Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in June, down from a 2.4% increase in May, largely due to lower month-over-month energy prices. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.6% year over year. Prices increased year over year in all eight major components.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.1% in June, following a 0.3% gain in May.

17-Jul-19 10:06 AM ET - Statistics CanadaNext: 21-Aug-19
US Corporate Profits
rose
3.3% in Q1 (vs. Q1 2018), revised from 1.6%, to $1.94 Trillion/yr, to the lowest level in 12 mos
3.3%
11.1%
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Revised Estimate:
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.



Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $13.8 billion, and payments increased $6.4 billion.

27-Jun-19 8:48 AM ET - U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: 29-Aug-19
1-Yr ARM
remained at
2.68% on Dec 31
2.68%
2.68%
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Mortgage Rates Top Four Percent

MCLEAN, VA--(Marketwired - Dec 31, 2015) - Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing fixed mortgage rates moving higher with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage breaking above four percent for the first time in five months.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.01 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending December 31, 2015, up from last week when it averaged 3.96 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent. 

  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.24 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from 3.22 percent last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.15 percent. 

  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.08 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.06 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.01 percent.

  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.68 percent this week with an average 0.2 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.40 percent. 

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

As of January 1, 2016, the PMMS will no longer provide results for the 1-year ARM. Additionally, the regional breakouts will not be provided for the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages, and the 5/1 Hybrid ARM.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

"In the final week of 2015, Treasury yields jumped reacting in part to strong consumer confidence in December. In response, the 30-year mortgage rate rose 5 basis points to 4.01 percent, ending a 5-month span below 4 percent. After averaging 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, we expect the 30-year mortgage rate to average 4.7 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016."

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. Additional information is available at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac's blog FreddieMac.com/blog.



31-Dec-15 10:48 AM ET - Freddie MacNext: 07-Jan-16