Euro Commentary
Tables & Charts

The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4800 figure and was capped around the $1.4935 level. Many dealers attribute today’s sell-off to a year-end unwinding of trades that chased higher-yielding assets at the expense of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, U.S. equity markets lost further ground today, leading to a further paring of long risk trades. U.S. interest rate expectations have also dwindled over the past month. June 2010 fed funds futures are implying about a 28% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will lift interest rates by then, down from 68% one month ago. In other Fed news, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s nomination hearing will begin in Congress on 3 December. Congress is currently deliberating some measures that would jeopardize the Fed’s political independence. Data to be released in the U.S. on Monday include the Chicago Fed’s October national activity index and October home sales data. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser indicated it is “not quite time” to raise intest rates and added he is “less concerned about the possibility of a double-dip” recession. In eurozone news, German Chancellor Merkel called for “coordinated exit strategies” as the global economy emerges from crisis. Data released in the eurozone today saw German October producer prices remain flat m/m and off 7.6% y/y. Speaking in Germany today, European Central Bank President Trichet hawkishly reported “Not all our liquidity measures will be nedded to the same extent as in the past. Any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally.” The ECB is unlikely to renew its offer of twelve-month loans to banks after its third offering in December and the central bank will likely offer fewer three-month and six-month loans in 2010. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.

SUPPORT   RESISTANCE

 
L1.       1.4470 1.4915             
L2.       1.4355 1.5140 
L3.       1.4175 1.5360