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Euro
Commentary The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4810 level and was capped around the $1.4915 level. The major news in the markets today revolved around the U.S. October non-farm payrolls report where it was indicated the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 10.2%, far above the 9.8% prior reading and above expectations. Similarly, the change in non-farm payrolls was off 190,000, worse-than-expected and worse than the positively-revised 219,000 print in September. Wages data came in stronger-than-expected at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y and average weekly hours remained steady at 33.0. These data evidence a deteriorating labour force though some economists cite the deceleration in job losses as proof of a possible forthcoming inflection point. Other data released in the U.S. today saw September wholesale inventories off 0.9%. down from the prior reading of 1.3%, while September consumer credit was off US$ 14.8 billion, down from the prior reading of –US$ 12.0 billion. After the non-farm payrolls data
were released today, the fed funds futures market indicated the Fed would lift its target fed funds rate to 0.31% by the middle of 2010, down from 0.33% before the data were released. In eurozone news, German Chancellor Merkel pessmistically noted “We aren't at the point yet where we can say that, internationally, we have taken the regulatory precautions so that such a crisis is not repeated.” Data released in Germany today saw September manufacturing orders climb 0.9% m/m, the seventh consecutive monthly improvement, while the rate was off 13.1% y/y. The Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision was released this week in which officials noted the economic recovery continues and pared back some of their emergency stimulus programs. The Fed continues to make it abundantly clear that rates are likely to remain unchanged for some time. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level. SUPPORT RESISTANCE L1. 1.4470 1.4915 L2. 1.4355 1.5140
L3. 1.4175 1.5360
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