FTSE 100 Analysis for 25-May-01

Market Commentary from Steve Hatton at CMC PLC:
Technical Analysis - FTSE 100

Commentary 

Yesterday`s range 5889/5950 closed 5916

Expect steady trading today with markets looking reluctant to deviate from recent ranges. The FTSE 100 is expected to open higher this morning, buoyed by late gains in US Indices & in particular the Nasdaq. Prices should test res 1 & 2 although firmer res at 5965/77 area should weigh on the topside.

A breach above res 3 will signal another attempt on key res at 6,000 (psychological, 8 month falling res line & the two-thirds retracement of the Jan/March sell-off).

Initial support at 58790/00 should contain the downside for now. Only a breach here will weaken towards 5877/80 & 5840/55 with 5805 below. Key support zone located at 5750/70 which encompasses the flattening 50 day m.a, 38.2% retracement of the April/May rise,  previous reaction lows & notional upchannel support.

The key 5950/00 zone continues to cap the topside. We require a breach through here to extend gains towards 6050/75 (prior peak & lateral res & at 6060 the 50% retracement of the   Sept/Mar decline) & key res at 6150  from the broken longer term ascending base line. A final move through here is required to open up deeper gains towards 6200/40 & 6300/60.

M.A

   
10 Day 5887 DN
20 Day 5893 UP
50 Day 5758 UP

14 DAY RSI

53.02

(50.72)

  1 2 3
RES: 5930 5940/50 5965/77
SUP: 5890/00 5877/80 5840/55

For more information visit www.cmcplc.com.

top
FTSE 100 Focus

Click Charts to Enlarge
Day's Change 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Instrument

Current

 Points % Date Value Date Value
Indices

24-May-01
CAC 40 This marker indicates the current chart. 5,656.47 25.73 0.45% 4-Sep-00 6,922.33 22-Mar-01 4,824.82
DAX This marker indicates the current chart. 6,278.90 63.65 1.01% 20-Jul-00 7,480.14 22-Mar-01 5,388.02
DJIA This marker indicates the current chart. 11,122.42 16.91 0.15% 21-May-01 11,337.92 22-Mar-01 9,389.48
FTSE 100 This marker indicates the current chart. 5,915.91 18.46 0.31% 4-Sep-00 6,798.10 22-Mar-01 5,314.75
FTSE Mid 250 This marker indicates the current chart. 6,635.80 -27.90 -0.42% 4-Sep-00 7,149.60 22-Mar-01 5,929.70
Hang Seng This marker indicates the current chart. 13,810.60 -28.50 -0.21% 21-Jul-00 17,920.86 4-Apr-01 12,063.71
NASDAQ This marker indicates the current chart. 2,282.02 38.54 1.69% 17-Jul-00 4,274.67 4-Apr-01 1,638.80
Nikkei This marker indicates the current chart. 13,895.79 -171.91 -1.24% 3-Jul-00 17,614.66 13-Mar-01 11,819.70
NYSE Composite This marker indicates the current chart. 652.98 0.08 0.01% 1-Sep-00 677.58 22-Mar-01 566.35
S&P 500 This marker indicates the current chart. 1,293.17 4.12 0.32% 1-Sep-00 1,520.77 4-Apr-01 1,103.25
 

Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge

Currency and Index information supplied by Telekurs

top
European Market Summary

MSFT

Microsoft Ltd, the Global software provider and QXL Ricardo Plc are said to have agreed to the terms of a strategic partnership. The partnership is said to deliver an 'enhanced customer e-commerce experience through joint technology and marketing initiatives', speculators await further confirmation. The CFD advanced during yesterdays session to end up $2.02. The contract closed at 71.70 well above support level which stands at 68, short term trading target can be seen at $74, stops placed at 70.

ARM

The fourth biggest techmark constituent, ARM Holdings recent rally's appears to be coming to a slow halt. The market has watched the CFD rebound off a 328 low to touch highs of 417 after news that it could benefit from new microchip R&D by Intel Corp. On the open this morning the CFD has declined to touch 375, but support at 365 remains intact. Similarities can be seen in the techmark which has also come off recent highs of 2169.

CSCO

Cisco Systems, a supplier of networking products to corporate enterprises led the advance of the Nasdaq yesterday adding 55 cents to close at 22.90. Other constituents such as Intel & Microsoft all closed in positive territory. During yesterdays session the CFD opened around $22.50 and range traded between 22 and 22.50 for the majority of the equity session. However Cisco took a steep decline at one point falling to a low of the day and tested support at 20.78. The contract rallied at the end finishing at 22.91. Market participants remain long looking for a breach of resistance at 24.25.

NDAQ100

Alan Greenspan, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman last night hinted at further rate cuts despite concerns over inflation. This provided the impetus for the Nasdaq to close up 45 points at 2003/06. Nasdaq futures currently +10 ticks at 2016 (fair value 4.52), but the market will wait for direction upon the release of US economic growth reports later today. Resistance at 1950 with stoplosses placed at 1900 and 1850.

US30

The Dow Jones closed marginally higher despite uncertainty about the political control of the U.S. senate following Senator James Jeffords departure from the Republican Party. Hints at further rate cuts by Alan Greenspan helped the Dow close +17points at 11113/18 despite negative news from the housing market which saw sales of new houses fall 9.5% in April. Dow futures +13 with little movement expected ahead of economic data announcements later today. Resistance at 11,000 with stoplosses placed at 10,900 and 10,800.

UK 100 index CFD

The FTSE, currently trading at 5875 has been pulled down by GSK (down 27), VOD (down 1.75) and RBOS (down 28). After its recent slide BT is the top climber today up 7p. UU (up 19) and CMG (up 11) are the other main gainers today, but it looks like being a quiet end to the trading week with thin volumes. Today is the first time the FTSE has been below its recent support level of 5900 in 7 days. Stops at 5895 were triggered around 8.30 leading to sharp declines on the contract, but speculators have been net buyers this morning keen to accumulate long positions on dips.

For more information visit www.cmcplc.com.

top
 
Steve has enjoyed eighteen years trading experience in London and contributes commentaries to Reuters, Bloomberg and several other European publications such as Shweizer Bank magazine.  Please feel free to contact Steve during European hours on the website chat service at www.cmcplc.com or at any time by e-mailing analysis@cmcplc.com.

top

© 2000 theFinancials.com & CMC PLC
All rights reserved.  Republication or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of theFinancials.com & CMC PLC.

DISCLAIMER: Commentary and market information is provided for informational purposes only.  The information contained in this report is gathered from reputable sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice.  theFinancials.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.